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How many copies did EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 180k–293k
$3.0M–$8.0M after Steam's cut $5.4M–$12.3M before Steam's cut
from 7k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 319k–486k
best case 37.9M (HELLDIVERS™ 2)
Games like EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6

A typical game among these

≈ 319k–486k copies

≈ $2.5M–$3.4M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: HELLDIVERS™ 2 at ≈ 28.9M–46.9M copies, ≈ $317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 21k reviews in their first month; the range was 264 to 251k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sci-fi (8 of 8) and Shooter (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Sci-fi, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Horror + Space + Survival Horror; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dead Space
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$29.2M–$78.4M after Steam's cut $53.0M–$120.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
71k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorThird-Person Shooter
HELLDIVERS™ 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 28.9M–46.9M
168x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut $577.5M–$1313.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.2M reviews
Mostly Positive
Online Co-OpPvE
STAR WARS™ Battlefront
2020
Est. copies
≈ 146k–238k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$805k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Mostly Positive
ShooterSci-fi
STAR WARS™ Battlefront II (Classic, 2005)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
7.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.4M–$25.4M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$39.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Very Positive
ActionMultiplayer
Vanquish
2017
Est. copies
≈ 275k–447k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
ActionThird-Person Shooter
The Callisto Protocol™
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$17.9M–$48.1M after Steam's cut $32.5M–$74.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
44k reviews
Mixed
HorrorSci-fi
Binary Domain
2012
Est. copies
≈ 526k–855k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.8M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$9.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
ActionThird-Person Shooter
Red Faction®: Armageddon™
2011
Est. copies
≈ 318k–517k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionDestruction

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