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How many copies did Tales of Kenzera™: ZAU sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25k–40k
$135k–$362k after Steam's cut $245k–$557k before Steam's cut
from 988 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tales of Kenzera™: ZAU and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tales of Kenzera™: ZAU's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 634k–1.4M
best case 6.6M (STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™)
Games like Tales of Kenzera™: ZAU

A typical game among these

≈ 634k–1.4M copies

≈ $7.4M–$11.5M after Steam's cut

from ~29k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ at ≈ 5.1M–8.2M copies, ≈ $55.6M–$149.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 9k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 23k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action-Adventure (5 of 8) and Metroidvania (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action-Adventure + Souls-like, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry Third Person + Open World + Swordplay; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 432k–701k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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MetroidvaniaDifficult
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
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≈ 5.1M–8.2M
6.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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19k reviews
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22k reviews
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CombatFantasy
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2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
5.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
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BeautifulMetroidvania
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Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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$29.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
SANABI
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.4M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsStory Rich

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