How much revenue did GateTail make?

$189–$508 after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did GateTail sell?

Q: How many copies did GateTail sell?

694 to 1k copies, based on its 28 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 694–1k; $189–$508 after Steam's cut $344–$782 before Steam's cut; from 28 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid GateTail and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including GateTail's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 769k–2.9M

best case 22.0M (Undertale)

Games like GateTail

A typical game among these

≈ 769k–2.9M copies

≈ $8.0M–$11.4M after Steam's cut

from ~36k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Undertale at ≈ 16.8M–27.2M copies, ≈ $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 922 to 11k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Choices Matter (7 of 8) and Multiple Endings (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Story Rich + Choices Matter, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Pixel Graphics + RPG + Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Everlasting Summer 2014	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.1M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	78k reviews Very Positive	Visual Novel Story Rich
The Stanley Parable 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	46k reviews Very Positive	ComedyNarration
Undertale 2015	Est. copies ≈ 16.8M–27.2M 9.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut $83.7M–$190.4M before Steam's cut	$9.99	343k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Great SoundtrackStory Rich
Our Life: Beginnings & Always 2020	Est. copies ≈ 342k–556k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	14k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelRomance
The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe 2022	Est. copies ≈ 898k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.2M–$16.6M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.5M before Steam's cut	$24.99	36k reviews Very Positive	Multiple EndingsComedy
House Party 2022	Est. copies ≈ 383k–623k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.9M before Steam's cut	$24.99	15k reviews Very Positive	NudityMature
The Henry Stickmin Collection 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	60k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FunnyMultiple Endings
Heavy Rain 2020	Est. copies ≈ 788k–1.3M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.3M–$11.7M after Steam's cut $7.9M–$17.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	32k reviews Very Positive	Choices MatterStory Rich