How much revenue did GUN™ make?

$791k–$2.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did GUN™ sell?

Q: How many copies did GUN™ sell?

144k to 234k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 144k–234k; $791k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid GUN™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including GUN™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–4.9M

best case 34.9M (Red Dead Redemption 2)

Games like GUN™

A typical game among these

≈ 1.5M–4.9M copies

≈ $14.7M–$28.4M after Steam's cut

from ~54k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Red Dead Redemption 2 at ≈ 26.6M–43.2M copies, ≈ $438.4M–$1178.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (8 of 8) and Third-Person Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Story Rich + Realistic + Western; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2009 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Red Dead Redemption 2024	Est. copies ≈ 543k–883k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before Steam's cut	$49.99	22k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldWestern
Red Dead Online 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $9.5M–$25.5M after Steam's cut $17.2M–$39.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	69k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldMultiplayer
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 26.6M–43.2M 17x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $438.4M–$1178.6M after Steam's cut $797.0M–$1813.3M before Steam's cut	$59.99	923k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldStory Rich
Watch_Dogs™ 2014	Est. copies ≈ 3.0M–4.9M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $16.5M–$44.3M after Steam's cut $30.0M–$68.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	54k reviews Mostly Positive	Open WorldHacking
Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018	Est. copies ≈ 982k–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	32k reviews Mixed	Open WorldAction
Saints Row 2 2009	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $3.8M–$10.2M after Steam's cut $6.9M–$15.7M before Steam's cut	$9.99	22k reviews Mostly Positive	Open WorldAction
Saints Row: The Third 2011	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	70k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldAction
Just Cause™ 3 2015	Est. copies ≈ 6.3M–10.2M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $34.4M–$92.4M after Steam's cut $62.5M–$142.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	128k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction