How much revenue did BLACKSHARD make?

$47k–$127k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did BLACKSHARD sell?

Q: How many copies did BLACKSHARD sell?

11k to 19k copies, based on its 463 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 11k–19k; $47k–$127k after Steam's cut $86k–$196k before Steam's cut; from 463 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid BLACKSHARD and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including BLACKSHARD's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 349k–1.0M

best case 2.4M (What Remains of Edith Finch)

Games like BLACKSHARD

A typical game among these

≈ 349k–1.0M copies

≈ $3.0M–$7.8M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: What Remains of Edith Finch at ≈ 1.8M–3.0M copies, ≈ $10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 11k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Walking Simulator (6 of 8) and Exploration (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Walking Simulator + First-Person, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Comedy + Narration + Funny; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Stanley Parable 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.7M 3.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	46k reviews Very Positive	ComedyNarration
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–3.0M 4.4x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichAtmospheric
INDIKA 2024	Est. copies ≈ 238k–387k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.6M–$4.4M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.8M before Steam's cut	$24.99	10k reviews Very Positive	SurrealPuzzle
The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe 2022	Est. copies ≈ 898k–1.5M 3.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.2M–$16.6M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.5M before Steam's cut	$24.99	36k reviews Very Positive	Multiple EndingsComedy
Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs 2013	Est. copies ≈ 770k–1.3M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	12k reviews Mixed	Horror Walking Simulator
The Invincible 2023	Est. copies ≈ 341k–554k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.6M before Steam's cut	$29.99	14k reviews Very Positive	AdventureRobots
Gone Home 2013	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–1.9M 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.8M–$12.9M after Steam's cut $8.7M–$19.9M before Steam's cut	$14.99	18k reviews Mostly Positive	Walking SimulatorShort
AER Memories of Old 2017	Est. copies ≈ 266k–433k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut	$14.99	8k reviews Very Positive	AdventureExploration