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How many copies did The Music Machine sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 30k–49k
$41k–$111k after Steam's cut $75k–$170k before Steam's cut
from 615 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Music Machine and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Music Machine's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.7M–4.4M
best case 11.6M (Outlast)
Games like The Music Machine

A typical game among these

≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies

≈ $19.7M–$41.5M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Outlast at ≈ 8.8M–14.4M copies, ≈ $36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (5 of 8) and Horror (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + First-Person, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Outlast
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.4M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
140k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorFirst-Person
The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe
2022
Est. copies
≈ 898k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.6M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
Multiple EndingsComedy
Amnesia: The Dark Descent
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.4M–$33.4M after Steam's cut $22.6M–$51.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorGore
Mouthwashing
2024
Est. copies
≈ 0
too small to compare
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$0 after Steam's cut $0 before Steam's cut
$12.99
0 reviews
No user reviews
SOMA
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.4M after Steam's cut $38.8M–$88.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Firewatch
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
100k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
Counter-Strike Nexon
2014
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–4.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
43k reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayFPS

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