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How many copies did TOKYO WARFARE sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 13k–22k
$18k–$50k after Steam's cut $34k–$77k before Steam's cut
from 324 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid TOKYO WARFARE and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including TOKYO WARFARE's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 306k–4.6M
best case 65.2M (War Thunder)
Games like TOKYO WARFARE

A typical game among these

≈ 306k–4.6M copies

≈ $3.1M–$3.3M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: War Thunder at ≈ 49.7M–80.7M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 985 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Vehicular Combat (5 of 8) and Military (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Vehicular Combat.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

World of Tanks Blitz
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.4M–10.4M
5.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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Free
Free
153k reviews
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TanksFree to Play
Trailmakers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceAction
Brigador: Up-Armored Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 243k–396k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.7M–80.7M
30x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
786k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
World of Tanks
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.1M
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
101k reviews
Mostly Positive
TanksFree to Play
Airships: Conquer the Skies
2018
Est. copies
≈ 201k–327k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Vehicular Combat4X
Gunner, HEAT, PC!
2022
Est. copies
≈ 203k–330k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessSimulation
Sprocket
2021
Est. copies
≈ 323k–525k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessSandbox

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