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How many copies did Runner3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$50k–$135k after Steam's cut $91k–$208k before Steam's cut
from 301 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Runner3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Runner3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 166k–259k
best case 262k (Melody's Escape)
Games like Runner3

A typical game among these

≈ 166k–259k copies

≈ $653k–$1.2M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Melody's Escape at ≈ 200k–325k copies, ≈ $549k–$1.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 40 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 2k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Music (7 of 8) and Rhythm (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Music-Based Procedural Generation + Rhythm, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hextech Mayhem: A League of Legends Story™
2021
Est. copies
≈ 58k–95k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$160k–$430k after Steam's cut $291k–$661k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
MusicRhythm
BIT.TRIP Presents... Runner2: Future Legend of Rhythm Alien
2013
Est. copies
≈ 195k–316k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$802k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Melody's Escape
2016
Est. copies
≈ 200k–325k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$549k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $998k–$2.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Music-Based Procedural GenerationRhythm
Nebula Flow
2025
Est. copies
≈ 967–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5k–$13k after Steam's cut $9k–$20k before Steam's cut
$17.99
39 reviews
Positive
IndieRhythm
Melody's Escape 2
2026
Est. copies
≈ 9k–14k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$36k–$96k after Steam's cut $65k–$148k before Steam's cut
$14.99
350 reviews
Very Positive
Music-Based Procedural GenerationRhythm
Rhythm Journey
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5k–$13k after Steam's cut $8k–$19k before Steam's cut
$5.99
114 reviews
Very Positive
IndieRhythm
JoJo Siwa: Worldwide Party
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
85 reviews
Mixed
CasualRunner
Lost in Harmony
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$4k–$10k after Steam's cut $7k–$15k before Steam's cut
$6.99
62 reviews
Very Positive
IndieCasual

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.