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How big is Battle for Wesnoth?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 183k–297k
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Battle for Wesnoth and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Battle for Wesnoth's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–2.4M
best case 2.9M (Total War: WARHAMMER)
Games like Battle for Wesnoth

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–2.4M copies

≈ $4.7M–$24.4M after Steam's cut

from ~43k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Total War: WARHAMMER at ≈ 2.2M–3.5M copies, ≈ $35.9M–$96.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 975 to 18k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based Strategy (6 of 8) and War (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Fantasy + RTS, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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