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How many copies did Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
$13.3M–$35.6M after Steam's cut $24.1M–$54.8M before Steam's cut
from 38k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–2.9M
best case 19.8M (Hearts of Iron IV)
Games like Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 1.2M–2.9M copies

≈ $12.6M–$45.6M after Steam's cut

from ~28k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hearts of Iron IV at ≈ 15.1M–24.6M copies, ≈ $207.7M–$558.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Grand Strategy (8 of 8) and Historical (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with World War II + Grand Strategy, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry World War II + Alternate History + Military; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hearts of Iron IV
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.1M–24.6M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$207.7M–$558.4M after Steam's cut $377.6M–$859.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
363k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyWorld War II
Total War: SHOGUN 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–7.0M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$35.4M–$95.2M after Steam's cut $64.4M–$146.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition
2010
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.6M–$25.9M after Steam's cut $17.5M–$39.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV
2020
Est. copies
≈ 404k–656k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
16k reviews
Mixed
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$29.7M–$79.9M after Steam's cut $54.0M–$123.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
94k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Victoria II
2010
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.2M–$19.5M after Steam's cut $13.2M–$29.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
Grand StrategyStrategy
Total War: SHOGUN 2
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
68k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
A Total War Saga: THRONES OF BRITANNIA
2018
Est. copies
≈ 453k–737k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.7M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
15k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyHistorical

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