How much revenue did Heads Will Roll: Reforged make?

$295k–$793k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Heads Will Roll: Reforged sell?

Q: How many copies did Heads Will Roll: Reforged sell?

43k to 70k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 43k–70k; $295k–$793k after Steam's cut $536k–$1.2M before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Heads Will Roll: Reforged and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Heads Will Roll: Reforged's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 20k–505k

best case 2.4M (UNO)

Games like Heads Will Roll: Reforged

A typical game among these

≈ 20k–505k copies

≈ $182k–$2.1M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is War (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: UNO at ≈ 1.9M–3.0M copies, ≈ $5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share War (3 of 8) and Choices Matter (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Card Game + Tabletop, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Garfield Kart 2015	Est. copies ≈ 691k–1.1M 3.0x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $948k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	14k reviews Very Positive	Cult ClassicCombat Racing
Ashes of the Singularity: Escalation 2016	Est. copies ≈ 208k–338k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	5k reviews Mostly Positive	RTSBase-Building
UNO 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M 12x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	54k reviews Mostly Positive	Card GameMultiplayer
Chromosome Evil 2022	Est. copies ≈ 9k–14k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $37k–$99k after Steam's cut $67k–$152k before Steam's cut	$14.99	359 reviews Very Positive	WarAtmospheric
DEFCON 2006	Est. copies ≈ 274k–445k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $904k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut	$11.99	4k reviews Very Positive	TacticalPvP
Sector Six 2018	Est. copies ≈ 8k–13k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $18k–$47k after Steam's cut $32k–$73k before Steam's cut	$8.00	264 reviews Very Positive	Looter ShooterCharacter Customization
Broken Lines 2020	Est. copies ≈ 17k–28k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $119k–$321k after Steam's cut $217k–$493k before Steam's cut	$24.99	700 reviews Mostly Positive	WarSingleplayer
SKYHILL 2015	Est. copies ≈ 282k–459k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $775k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	6k reviews Mostly Positive	SurvivalAction Roguelike