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How many copies did Rise - The Vieneo Province sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 719–1k
$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $7k–$16k before Steam's cut
from 29 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rise - The Vieneo Province and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rise - The Vieneo Province's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 24k–8.0M
best case 23.0M (No Man's Sky)
Games like Rise - The Vieneo Province

A typical game among these

≈ 24k–8.0M copies

≈ $1.8M–$131.3M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: No Man's Sky at ≈ 17.5M–28.5M copies, ≈ $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 57 reviews in their first month; the range was 12 to 6k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (8 of 8) and Sandbox (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SimplePlanes
2015
Est. copies
≈ 533k–865k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$7.9M before Steam's cut
$12.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
FlightSandbox
Slime Rancher
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
158k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CuteExploration
Feather
2019
Est. copies
≈ 23k–38k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$64k–$172k after Steam's cut $116k–$264k before Steam's cut
$9.99
808 reviews
Very Positive
ExplorationFlight
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.5M–28.5M
33x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
422k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
FireJumpers Inferno
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
78 reviews
Mixed
Avorion
2020
Est. copies
≈ 362k–588k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.7M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
ExplorationSandbox
Hazeron Starship
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$14k–$38k after Steam's cut $26k–$59k before Steam's cut
$19.99
104 reviews
Very Positive
ExplorationFPS

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