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How many copies did DOOM 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 534k–868k
from 8k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid DOOM 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including DOOM 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.9M–11.7M
best case 23.2M (Half-Life 2)
Games like DOOM 3

A typical game among these

≈ 4.9M–11.7M copies

≈ $56.9M–$84.6M after Steam's cut

from ~142k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Half-Life 2 at ≈ 17.7M–28.8M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (8 of 8) and FPS (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Sci-fi, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2004 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Half-Life: Alyx
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
106k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRFPS
Metro: Last Light Redux
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$67.9M after Steam's cut $45.9M–$104.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
82k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS
Outlast
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
140k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorFirst-Person
Half-Life 2
2004
Est. copies
≈ 17.7M–28.8M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
280k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Black Mesa
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$19.8M–$53.2M after Steam's cut $35.9M–$81.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
145k reviews
Very Positive
FPSRemake
SCP: Secret Laboratory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
235k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore
Alien: Isolation
2014
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.3M–$110.9M after Steam's cut $75.0M–$170.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
67k reviews
Very Positive

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