How much revenue did Later Alligator make?

$440k–$1.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Later Alligator sell?

Q: How many copies did Later Alligator sell?

89k to 144k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 89k–144k; $440k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $799k–$1.8M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Later Alligator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Later Alligator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.4M–4.5M

best case 11.3M (Life is Strange - Episode 1)

Games like Later Alligator

A typical game among these

≈ 3.4M–4.5M copies

≈ $28.1M–$38.1M after Steam's cut

from ~96k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Story Rich (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Life is Strange - Episode 1 at ≈ 8.6M–14.0M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 19k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 55k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (4 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Horror + First-Person, priced around $8. The breakout hits carry Survival Horror; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Firewatch 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.2M–6.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	100k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric
Persona 4 Golden 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.0M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	88k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPGGreat Soundtrack
Content Warning 2024	Est. copies ≈ 4.1M–6.6M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut	$7.99	164k reviews Very Positive	Online Co-OpHorror
Deceit 2017	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.1M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	92k reviews Mostly Positive	PvPMultiplayer
Outer Wilds 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	108k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ExplorationSpace
Core Keeper 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.7M too small to compare SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.3M–$24.9M after Steam's cut $16.9M–$38.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	68k reviews Very Positive	Pixel GraphicsOpen World Survival Craft
Poppy Playtime 2021	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	143k reviews Very Positive	HorrorFree to Play
Life is Strange - Episode 1 2015	Est. copies ≈ 8.6M–14.0M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	176k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichChoices Matter