How much revenue did Aliens vs. Predator™ make?

$5.7M–$15.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Aliens vs. Predator™ sell?

Q: How many copies did Aliens vs. Predator™ sell?

1.4M to 2.2M copies, based on its 22k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.4M–2.2M; $5.7M–$15.2M after Steam's cut $10.3M–$23.4M before Steam's cut; from 22k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Aliens vs. Predator™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Aliens vs. Predator™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.6M–3.4M

best case 23.2M (Half-Life 2)

Games like Aliens vs. Predator™

A typical game among these

≈ 2.6M–3.4M copies

≈ $40.5M–$64.2M after Steam's cut

from ~48k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Half-Life 2 at ≈ 17.7M–28.8M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share First-Person (7 of 8) and FPS (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + Sci-fi, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2004 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Black Mesa 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.8M 3.0x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $19.8M–$53.2M after Steam's cut $35.9M–$81.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	145k reviews Very Positive	FPSRemake
Half-Life 2 2004	Est. copies ≈ 17.7M–28.8M 5.8x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	280k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSAction
Half-Life 2: Episode One 2006	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	31k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSAction
Half-Life 2: Episode Two 2007	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.2M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	41k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSAction
Prey 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $15.5M–$41.8M after Steam's cut $28.2M–$64.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	55k reviews Very Positive	Sci-fiImmersive Sim
Alien: Isolation 2014	Est. copies ≈ 3.8M–6.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $41.3M–$110.9M after Steam's cut $75.0M–$170.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	67k reviews Very Positive	Horror Survival Horror
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 2019	Est. copies ≈ 7.6M–12.3M 5.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $83.3M–$223.9M after Steam's cut $151.4M–$344.5M before Steam's cut	$39.99	263k reviews Very Positive	Great SoundtrackFPS
Evolve Stage 2 2015	Est. copies ≈ 2.4M–3.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	48k reviews Mostly Positive	ActionMultiplayer