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How many copies did Shadowgrounds Survivor sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 51k–83k
$141k–$378k after Steam's cut $256k–$582k before Steam's cut
from 810 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shadowgrounds Survivor and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadowgrounds Survivor's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 12.2M–26.3M
best case 37.9M (HELLDIVERS™ 2)
Games like Shadowgrounds Survivor

A typical game among these

≈ 12.2M–26.3M copies

≈ $135.4M–$259.5M after Steam's cut

from ~367k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: HELLDIVERS™ 2 at ≈ 28.9M–46.9M copies, ≈ $317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 89k reviews in their first month; the range was 40k to 251k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (5 of 8) and Shooter (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action RPG + Looter Shooter, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Free to Play; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Warframe
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.9M–69.7M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
678k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayAction RPG
Destiny 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 19.1M–31.0M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
663k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut $141.5M–$321.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
380k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op
HELLDIVERS™ 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 28.9M–46.9M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut $577.5M–$1313.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.2M reviews
Mostly Positive
Online Co-OpPvE
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 21.0M–34.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
429k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Borderlands 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 19.8M–32.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$217.3M–$584.2M after Steam's cut $395.1M–$898.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
313k reviews
Very Positive
LootShooter
Risk of Rain 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
353k reviews
Very Positive
Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike

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