How much revenue did COVID: The Outbreak make?

$9k–$25k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did COVID: The Outbreak sell?

Q: How many copies did COVID: The Outbreak sell?

2k to 4k copies, based on its 97 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2k–4k; $9k–$25k after Steam's cut $17k–$38k before Steam's cut; from 97 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid COVID: The Outbreak and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including COVID: The Outbreak's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 212k–558k

best case 7.3M (Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition)

Games like COVID: The Outbreak

A typical game among these

≈ 212k–558k copies

≈ $2.4M–$4.0M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition at ≈ 5.6M–9.1M copies, ≈ $46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 855 to 6k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Grand Strategy (5 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Grand Strategy + Historical, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Historical + Grand Strategy + Medieval; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Bio Inc. Redemption 2018	Est. copies ≈ 99k–161k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $353k–$950k after Steam's cut $642k–$1.5M before Steam's cut	$12.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Medical SimOutbreak Sim
Democracy 4 2022	Est. copies ≈ 159k–258k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	6k reviews Very Positive	StrategyPolitical Sim
Crusader Kings II 2012	Est. copies ≈ 4.7M–7.6M 9.5x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	74k reviews Very Positive	Grand StrategyStrategy
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition 2013	Est. copies ≈ 5.6M–9.1M 11x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	88k reviews Very Positive	StrategyHistorical
Ultimate General: Civil War 2017	Est. copies ≈ 296k–481k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	9k reviews Very Positive	WargameReal Time Tactics
Victoria II 2010	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M 2.7x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.2M–$19.5M after Steam's cut $13.2M–$29.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	21k reviews Very Positive	Grand StrategyStrategy
Prehistoric Kingdom 2022	Est. copies ≈ 170k–276k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	7k reviews Very Positive	DinosaursManagement
Age of History 3 2024	Est. copies ≈ 468k–761k 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	19k reviews Very Positive	WargameStrategy