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How many copies did Beholder 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 71k–116k
$352k–$946k after Steam's cut $640k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Beholder 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Beholder 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 370k–808k
best case 1.7M (Beholder)
Games like Beholder 3

A typical game among these

≈ 370k–808k copies

≈ $2.3M–$7.5M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Beholder at ≈ 1.3M–2.1M copies, ≈ $5.0M–$13.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Political Sim (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Dystopian + Choices Matter, priced around $14.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Not For Broadcast
2022
Est. copies
≈ 315k–512k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.8M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$9.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Adventure1980s
Beholder
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.0M–$13.4M after Steam's cut $9.1M–$20.6M before Steam's cut
$13.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
Dystopian Choices Matter
Long Live The Queen
2013
Est. copies
≈ 453k–736k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelPolitical Sim
Orwell: Ignorance is Strength
2018
Est. copies
≈ 58k–95k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$160k–$431k after Steam's cut $292k–$664k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationChoices Matter
Rebel Inc: Escalation
2021
Est. copies
≈ 189k–307k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$778k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation
Democracy 3
2013
Est. copies
≈ 459k–745k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$13.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
7k reviews
Mostly Positive
Political SimSimulation
Beholder 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 248k–404k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.1M before Steam's cut
$17.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Dystopian Strategy
Imperator: Rome
2019
Est. copies
≈ 773k–1.3M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.5M–$22.8M after Steam's cut $15.5M–$35.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
27k reviews
Mixed
StrategyGrand Strategy

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