How much revenue did Happy Guy make?

$13k–$35k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Happy Guy sell?

Q: How many copies did Happy Guy sell?

16k to 26k copies, based on its 642 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 16k–26k; $13k–$35k after Steam's cut $24k–$54k before Steam's cut; from 642 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Happy Guy and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Happy Guy's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 10.3M–15.2M

best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)

Games like Happy Guy

A typical game among these

≈ 10.3M–15.2M copies

≈ $85.4M after Steam's cut

from ~303k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Anime (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 206k reviews in their first month; the range was 33k to 326k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Anime (3 of 8) and Battle Royale (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry RPG + Story Rich; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Doki Doki Literature Club! 2017	Est. copies ≈ 7.9M–12.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	229k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Visual Novel
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M 3.4x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Bloons TD 6 2018	Est. copies ≈ 12.0M–19.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.3M–$124.5M after Steam's cut $84.2M–$191.5M before Steam's cut	$13.99	396k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Tower DefenseStrategy
Fall Guys 2020	Est. copies ≈ 11.6M–18.9M 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	468k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerParty Game
VRChat 2017	Est. copies ≈ 9.3M–15.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	269k reviews Mostly Positive	VRFree to Play
Baldur's Gate 3 2023	Est. copies ≈ 21.3M–34.6M 2.8x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	859k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGCharacter Customization
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT 2021	Est. copies ≈ 7.5M–12.2M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	303k reviews Mostly Positive	Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
Cyberpunk 2077 2020	Est. copies ≈ 24.4M–39.6M 3.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut	$59.99	983k reviews Very Positive	CyberpunkOpen World