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How many copies did BJORN sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 967–2k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
from 39 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid BJORN and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including BJORN's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.6M–4.8M
best case 25.6M (Hollow Knight)
Games like BJORN

A typical game among these

≈ 2.6M–4.8M copies

≈ $34.8M–$76.2M after Steam's cut

from ~87k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.5M–31.6M copies, ≈ $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 23k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 27k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Souls-like (5 of 8) and Action-Adventure (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Souls-like, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Great Soundtrack + Difficult + Indie; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Ori and the Will of the Wisps
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulMetroidvania
Hyper Light Drifter
2016
Est. copies
≈ 799k–1.3M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.4M–$11.8M after Steam's cut $8.0M–$18.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsGreat Soundtrack
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.5M–31.6M
6.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
566k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rain World
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.6M–$36.7M after Steam's cut $24.8M–$56.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultAtmospheric
Blasphemous
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.8M–$50.7M after Steam's cut $34.3M–$78.0M before Steam's cut
$34.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
MetroidvaniaPixel Graphics
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.6M–$149.5M after Steam's cut $101.1M–$230.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
176k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureSouls-like
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$41.3M–$111.2M after Steam's cut $75.2M–$171.0M before Steam's cut
$69.99
87k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionAdventure
Death's Door
2021
Est. copies
≈ 552k–897k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.2M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
CuteSouls-like

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