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How many copies did TowerFall Ascension sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 203k–330k
$837k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid TowerFall Ascension and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including TowerFall Ascension's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 297k–454k
best case 18.7M (Brawlhalla)
Games like TowerFall Ascension

A typical game among these

≈ 297k–454k copies

≈ $2.2M–$3.0M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Brawlhalla at ≈ 14.2M–23.1M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Fighter (8 of 8) and Fighting (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Fighting + 2D Fighter, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Stick Fight: The Game
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–7.0M
16x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
125k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerFunny
Lethal League Blaze
2018
Est. copies
≈ 204k–331k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionIndie
Brawlhalla
2017
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
52x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
413k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Skullgirls 2nd Encore
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.1M–$37.8M after Steam's cut $25.5M–$58.1M before Steam's cut
$24.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
Fighting2D Fighter
Rivals of Aether
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
4.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$29.2M after Steam's cut $19.7M–$44.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
38k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Fighting2D Fighter
Nidhogg
2014
Est. copies
≈ 443k–720k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Local MultiplayerIndie
Rivals of Aether II
2024
Est. copies
≈ 248k–404k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.5M after Steam's cut $3.7M–$8.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
10k reviews
Mostly Positive
FightingMultiplayer
ROUNDS
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
5.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.6M before Steam's cut
$5.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerFighting

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