How much revenue did Aragami make?

$3.0M–$8.0M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Aragami sell?

Q: How many copies did Aragami sell?

541k to 878k copies, based on its 13k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 541k–878k; $3.0M–$8.0M after Steam's cut $5.4M–$12.3M before Steam's cut; from 13k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Aragami and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Aragami's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 204k–529k

best case 13.5M (Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition)

Games like Aragami

A typical game among these

≈ 204k–529k copies

≈ $1.4M–$6.8M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition at ≈ 10.3M–16.7M copies, ≈ $169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 3k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Stealth (8 of 8) and Ninja (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Souls-like + Ninja, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Souls-like + Difficult + Third Person; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice 2021	Est. copies ≈ 120k–196k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $662k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	5k reviews Very Positive	Real Time TacticsStrategy
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M 5.5x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $17.6M–$47.3M after Steam's cut $32.0M–$72.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	38k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	StealthStrategy
Mark of the Ninja: Remastered 2018	Est. copies ≈ 211k–343k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	7k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	StealthNinja
Desperados III 2020	Est. copies ≈ 413k–671k 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.5M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	17k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Real Time TacticsStrategy
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019	Est. copies ≈ 10.3M–16.7M 51x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut	$59.99	357k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Souls-likeDifficult
Aragami 2 2021	Est. copies ≈ 115k–187k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut	$34.99	5k reviews Mostly Positive	StealthNinja
Mark of the Ninja unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 394k–640k 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	16k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Stealth Platformer
Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: China 2015	Est. copies ≈ 191k–310k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $524k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $954k–$2.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	4k reviews Mostly Positive	AssassinStealth