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How many copies did One True Path - Part 1 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
from 86 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid One True Path - Part 1 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including One True Path - Part 1's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 75k–118k
best case 669k (BONELAB)
Games like One True Path - Part 1

A typical game among these

≈ 75k–118k copies

≈ $499k–$1.1M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: BONELAB at ≈ 509k–828k copies, ≈ $5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 764 reviews in their first month; the range was 178 to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share VR (8 of 8) and Action-Adventure (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Physics, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Physics + Shooter + FPS; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
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1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Battle Talent
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≈ 32k–52k
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Est. copies
≈ 105k–170k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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3k reviews
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VRAdventure
BONELAB
2022
Est. copies
≈ 509k–828k
7.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
VRPhysics
The Walking Dead: Saints & Sinners - Chapter 2: Retribution
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Est. copies
≈ 46k–75k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$128k–$343k after Steam's cut $232k–$528k before Steam's cut
$9.99
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VRAction
Legendary Tales
2024
Est. copies
≈ 75k–122k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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$825k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
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VROnline Co-Op
UNDERDOGS
2024
Est. copies
≈ 73k–119k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$604k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
3k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRAction-Adventure
Vertigo 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 68k–110k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$559k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
3k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRIndie

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