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How many copies did Vertigo 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 68k–110k
$559k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Vertigo 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Vertigo 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 871k–5.4M
best case 23.0M (No Man's Sky)
Games like Vertigo 2

A typical game among these

≈ 871k–5.4M copies

≈ $13.1M–$77.0M after Steam's cut

from ~52k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: No Man's Sky at ≈ 17.5M–28.5M copies, ≈ $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 27k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sci-fi (5 of 8) and Space (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.5M–28.5M
8.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
422k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
Half-Life: Alyx
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
106k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRFPS
BONEWORKS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.8M–$35.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
VRPhysics
Hardspace: Shipbreaker
2022
Est. copies
≈ 557k–905k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.4M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.2M before Steam's cut
$34.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSci-fi
Elite Dangerous
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.5M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.9M–$77.8M after Steam's cut $52.6M–$119.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
108k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSpace
STAR WARS™: Squadrons
2020
Est. copies
≈ 699k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
28k reviews
Mixed
FlightSpace
Alien: Isolation
2014
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.3M–$110.9M after Steam's cut $75.0M–$170.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
Project Wingman
2020
Est. copies
≈ 556k–904k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.3M after Steam's cut $6.9M–$15.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
FlightAction

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