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How many copies did Eastshade sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 159k–258k
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Eastshade and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Eastshade's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.0M–4.7M
best case 4.8M (Ori and the Will of the Wisps)
Games like Eastshade

A typical game among these

≈ 4.0M–4.7M copies

≈ $44.7M–$82.0M after Steam's cut

from ~136k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Ori and the Will of the Wisps at ≈ 3.6M–5.9M copies, ≈ $30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 23k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 30k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (6 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Beautiful + Metroidvania, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Outer Wilds
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
108k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationSpace
Just Cause 2
2010
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.3M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.4M–$36.1M after Steam's cut $24.4M–$55.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
52k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAdventure
The Witness
2016
Est. copies
≈ 900k–1.5M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.9M–$26.6M after Steam's cut $18.0M–$40.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleExploration
A Short Hike
2019
Est. copies
≈ 661k–1.1M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$6.0M before Steam's cut
$7.99
23k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationRelaxing
Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$19.4M–$52.1M after Steam's cut $35.2M–$80.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
57k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Ori and the Will of the Wisps
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulMetroidvania
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$59.0M–$158.6M after Steam's cut $107.3M–$244.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldSuperhero

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